Friday, October 30, 2009

Remember when Trigger was just a horse?

The health insurance reform bill changes so often and so quickly, even within the same day, that an overwhelming sense of déjà vu has set in. Ideas that we thought were dead and buried are back again, making us wonder - is this a new idea, or haven't we heard this one before. Today, from McClatchy, it is the trigger:
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., last week said he'd move ahead with a plan that allows states to opt out within the first year, but that's failed so far to stir the eight to 12 moderates whose votes are crucial.

Gaining support is the idea of a "trigger," where the public option only would be permitted if private insurers fail to lower costs. There are lots of other ideas, however.

Only if they fail to lower costs? Kaiser Family Foundation:



In the decade just ended, premiums increased 131%, and worker contributions increased 128%, compared against a 28% rate of inflation or 38% wage increases over the same time period.

In the United States, we spend more money per person on health care than any other nation in the world. And yet, in measure after measure, we trail most industrial nations and many developing nations in health outcomes. Without government intervention, there is nothing to stop insurance companies from continuing to loot the pockets of American workers. They have shown no willingness or ability to lower premiums year after year over a long period of time. So why should we wait even longer for them to show even more years of incompetence and avarice before a government-mandate intervention can be triggered?

In fact, public insurance companies have billions - yes, billions - of reasons to continue pushing premiums up, paying executive performance bonuses, and make no efforts to cut costs or ease the pressure on working Americans.

Company Enrollment Outstanding Shares
UnitedHealth Group 30,300,000 1,162,420,963
WellPoint 35,300,000 484,639,194
Aetna 17,700,000 442,800,000
Humana 8,400,000 169,657,445
CIGNA 11,900,000 272,704,706
TOTAL 103,600,000 2,532,222,308

These billions of shares have to receive dividends - profits on the backs of the diseases, disorders, illnesses, and deaths of other Americans. We don't need a trigger. We don't need to wait for more evidence that these health insurance companies are unwilling and incapable of controlling costs. We can see the problem clear as day. But too many people in power are too weakened by money and corruption to do the right thing.

Exhibit A: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR). She is facing a tough re-election fight in a rare reddening state. When she is not busy being the pawn of Wal-Mart or Tyson (which is not often), she has the freedom to choose for herself what is best for her re-election chances - er, the people of Arkansas. Here is what those people told her this week - Progressive Change Campaign Committee (MOE 4%):

QUESTION: Would you favor or oppose the government offering everyone a government administered health insurance plan -- something like the Medicare coverage that people 65 and older get -- that would compete with private health insurance plans? (Wording of NYT poll)


FAVOROPPOSENOT SURE
ALL
56
37
7

QUESTION: If Blanche Lincoln votes against a public option as part of health care reform, will that make you more likely or less likely to vote for her in the 2010 general election or would it have no real effect on your vote?


MORELESSNO EFFECT
ALL162955

QUESTION: If Blanche Lincoln joined Republican senators in filibustering and killing a health care reform bill because it had a public health insurance option, would that make you more likely or less likely to vote for her in the 2010 general election or would it have no real effect on your vote?


MORELESSNO EFFECT
ALL153253

A clear majority of Arkansans favor a plan like Medicare for all. And when it comes to the question of whether Lincoln should oppose a public option (-13) or join Republicans in "filibustering"* (-17), the affect on voters is similar enough to fall within the margin of error. Yet in this rare alignment of planets - the right thing to do AND the will of the electorate - Lincoln still seems to be in search of her spine. (So does her colleague Mark Pryor - he's not even up for re-election this time, but is still saying he will be guided by what Lincoln does.)

[* - until "filibusters" look like this again, I'll be using the quotation marks.]

And why is Lincoln still searching for her spine? Because in the 2009-2010 election cycle, only two people in the entire country have taken more from the health industry than Blanche Lincoln's $427,950 - Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) and Senate candidate and former governor Charlie Crist (R-FL).

Blanche - get off the fence and out from in front of the cameras, and do the right thing. Who knows? It might just get you re-elected.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Name that candidate

Courtesy of Pollster.com, CNN and Opinion Research Corporation have a new poll out today regarding the 2012 presidential election, potential candidates, and their approval ratings and strengths. Regarding one politician who is frequently discussed as a candidate in 2012, their polling found the following:
Not a typical politician: 65% Applies, 34% Does not apply
A good role model...: 64 / 35
Care about the needs of people like you: 56 / 43
Is honest and trustworthy: 55 / 43
Shares your values: 49 / 49
Generally agrees with you on issues you care about: 48 / 50
Is a strong and decisive leader: 47 / 51
Have you guessed the candidate yet? Most non-incumbents would envy numbers like this, and it would lead you to believe that the candidate would be in a strong position heading into 2010. But then check out the bottom line:
Qualified to be president: 29 / 71
Have you figured out that the candidate is Sarah Palin? Even among Republicans, the margin is only 52 /47 (4.5% MOE). Her favorability rating is 42 /51 in the same poll. So if she is strong in these traditional measures of candidate values and strengths, what is it about her that makes seven in ten Americans think she is unqualified to be president?

I think the key is in the last strengths question - is she a strong a decisive leader? She receives her lowest marks in this category, and it would be a concern for any candidate to have low numbers on this criteria. But worse for Palin, her decisiveness is sometimes misguided and unintelligible. Two of her biggest decisions involved quitting public positions - one because of a lack of ethics of others, and the second because of a lack of ethics on her own part. In a crisis, will she quit?

All of this, of course, is purely academic. Everyone involved in the Palin follies of 2008 is turning their backs on everyone else and seeking to cash in for themselves. Palin knows, or has been told using very small words, that she could rouse a base of her party a la George Wallace, but she could never win the nomination or the election. Better to strike while the iron is hot, take her place along side Newt Gingrich as post-political party elders, and bring in hundreds of thousands of dollars in public appearance fees.

At least the Miss California pageant could strip Carrie Prejean of her title, limiting her scope and impact. The Grumpy Old Party has stuck us with Sarah.