An Independence Bowl Primer

So here is what I know about the big game, as of December 1.

The Independence Bowl has tie-ins with the SEC and Big XII Conferences. However, an unusual set of circumstances in 2008 will likely prevent either conference from being represented in the game.

(1) SEC: The SEC has tie-ins with nine bowls. Only eight teams are bowl-eligible (six wins and a non-losing record). And one team - Alabama or Florida - will almost definitely play in the BCS Championship Game (not included in the nine bowl tie-ins). Therefore, the last two bowls on the SEC's selection order list - the Independence Bowl and Papajohns.com Bowl - will not be able to select an SEC team.

(2) Big XII: The Big XII has tie-ins with nine bowls for eight slots. Only seven teams are bowl eligible this year - the fewest since 2004. So the last team on the selection order list - the Texas Bowl - will not get a Big XII team.

The Independence Bowl is seventh on the selection order list. If Oklahoma beats Missouri for the Big XII championship, the Sooners will be promoted to the BCS Championship Game, and the Independence Bowl will lose its Big XII team (which would be Kansas). The same result happens if Missouri wins the Big XII and BCS #3 Texas moves up.

The only way the Independence Bowl gets Kansas is if Missouri wins the Big XII, USC clobbers UCLA, Florida beats Alabama, and USC impresses enough voters and computers to get past the Longhorns in the BCS standings - not likely at all.

(3) Sun Belt: In 2008 and 2009, the Independence Bowl has an agreement with the Sun Belt to choose an eligible team from that conference if either the Big XII or SEC cannot provide a team. This clause will definitely kick in for 2008.

The Sun Belt will have four eligible teams - Troy, Arkansas State, Florida Atlantic, and the winner of the Louisiana-Lafayette v. Middle Tennessee State game. And, for the first time in this post, this is where things get complicated.

In 2006, the NCAA instituted a rule (.pdf) requiring that bowl eligible teams with a winning record be considered before teams with a 6-6 record. This rule does not apply if a bowl has a contract with a conference, as the Independence Bowl does with the Sun Belt Conference.

If Troy defeats Arkansas State, Troy goes to the New Orleans Bowl as the Sun Belt Conference champions. Then, if Louisiana-Lafayette defeats Middle Tennessee State, the Independence Bowl will almost certainly give the Ragin' Cajuns their first bowl bid in school history. But if Middle Tennessee State wins, the Independence Bowl will choose between MTSU, Florida Atlantic, and Arkansas State. Arkansas State, as the closest school and with a victory over Texas A&M to open the season, would be the front-runner.

If Arkansas State defeats Troy, they are conference co-champions, and Arkansas State goes to the New Orleans Bowl on the head-to-head tiebreaker. Then, under the 2006 NCAA bowl rule, the Sun Belt would be required to send 7-5 Troy to the Independence Bowl over 6-6 Florida Atlantic and the 6-6 winner of ULL v. MTSU.

This conference is so tight at the top that it is impossible to predict what will happen here. What is almost certain, however, is that either Troy, Arkansas State, or Louisiana-Lafayette will play in the Independence Bowl.

(4) At-large:There are 68 bowl slots available. At least 72 teams and as many as 74 will be bowl-eligible. In the last three seasons, every BCS conference team that was bowl eligible received a bowl invitation. This means that the WAC, with six eligible teams and only four bowl tie-ins, will likely send Louisiana Tech to the Independence Bowl for their fourth appearance, and first since a 34-34 tie with Maryland in 1990.

There are two dark horses for this at-large spot. The MAC's Western Michigan could land in Shreveport at 9-3. They tied for second in the Western Division with Central Michigan, who beat them. However, Central's season-ending loss to 3-9 Eastern Michigan probably ended the Chippewas' bowl hopes. Also, North Carolina State is the tenth team in the nine-bid ACC. They could be shipped to Shreveport if there are no vacancies in more prestigious bowl games.

The match-up I'd like to see? Louisiana-Lafayette versus Louisiana Tech. Tech leads the series 16-10-3, but the teams haven't played since 2004. The most likely match-up? Arkansas State versus Western Michigan. ASU v. Louisiana Tech was a regular series in the 1990s, and not a very interesting one (Tech leads the series 14-3.) Plus, the only time in the last decade that the Independence Bowl reached out to another conference was in 2004, when the MAC's Miami gave Iowa State a competitive game. And Arkansas State has played Eastern and Central Michigan, but never Western.

(5) Bowl notes: The eligible teams most likely to be left out of the bowls: Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, Florida Atlantic, San Jose State, and Memphis.

The Big XII and SEC conference championships are also essentially BCS semifinals. Here are the possibilities.

ACC: Boston College or Virginia Tech
Big East: Cincinnati
Big Ten: Penn State
Big XII: Oklahoma or Missouri
Pac-10: Oregon State or USC
SEC: Alabama or Florida
Automatic qualifier: Utah
At-large: Texas
Possible At-large (in order of likelihood): Alabama/Florida loser; Oklahoma (if loses to Missouri); USC (if loses to Oregon State); Ohio State; Boise State

The BCS National Championship will definitely pair the SEC champion against Oklahoma or Texas. (Two exceptions - [1] Poll voters get a conscience about a team that did not win its conference playing for the title. [2] Florida wins the SEC and Oklahoma wins the Big XII, but Florida cannot squeeze past Texas for BCS #2.)

My predictions:
BCS Championship: Alabama v. Oklahoma
Rose Bowl: Penn State v. USC
Sugar Bowl: Florida v. Ohio State
Fiesta Bowl: Texas v. Utah
Orange Bowl: Boston College v. Cincinnati

UPDATE [12/2/08]: Apparently, if Troy loses to Arkansas State, the Indians go to the New Orleans Bowl, and the Trojans are committed to the Papajohns.com Bowl. This probably strengthens the case for a Louisiana Tech-Western Michigan match-up. Even if Louisiana-Lafayette wins their final game, their season record would pale in comparison to these two teams.