Bowl Outlook (Saturday afternoon update)

Okay, so some things have not gone according to plan. NC State upsets Carolina, Oklahoma is destroying the Cowboys, Clemson lost, and Mississippi lost. Here's where things stand.

• Ole Miss loss to Mississippi State could cost them the Cotton Bowl, if Arkansas upsets LSU.
• North Carolina lost a chance to move up in the bowls due to Clemson’s loss to South Carolina when the Heels got upset on a late field goal block by NC State.
• Oklahoma State’s BCS at-large spot is slipping away at Norman. Now they have to hold off Nebraska for the Cotton Bowl.
• OU’s win (with a Missouri loss) could give the Sooners the Alamo Bowl.
• Six teams playing for two bowl spots: Connecticut, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Notre Dame, UCLA (all 6-5) and UAB (5-6).

As for the Aggies, OSU's loss could be good news for us. Now that the Cowboys consume one of the Big XII's contractual bowl berths, Texas A&M likely gets bumped down to the Texas Bowl or Independence Bowl.

College Football Outlook (with Bowls!)

First things first – the Aggies.

A win over Texas would have solidified their bowl position higher in the Big XII selection process. However, the Aggies are bowl eligible and will be playing in December, partly because of the poor quality of remaining teams at the bottom of the selection barrel (more on that in a minute).

With Pittsburgh’s upset loss to West Virginia, and their expected loss to Cincinnati, there is room in the BCS for a new at large player. Oklahoma State is going to win the Bedlam Bell for just the sixth time since 1997 (and sixteenth in over a century). That will be enough to squeeze them past Iowa and Penn State for the tenth and final BCS spot. Penn State’s losses to Iowa and Ohio State look better than the Cowboys’ losses to Texas and Houston. But the fact that the Big Ten season ends so early gives Oklahoma State a chance to have the field to themselves.

Now, how does all that relate to the Aggies? The Big XII Conference has agreements with the BCS and seven bowls for a total of eight slots. With Oklahoma State in the BCS, there is now room for nine Big XII teams, and unless Kansas upsets Missouri, there will be exactly nine qualifiers. Four of them will be 6-6 teams: Iowa State, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and possibly Kansas. The Sun, Insight, Independence, and Texas bowls have the last four selections. And when you get to this point in the process, it’s all about money and traveling fans.

The Sun Bowl in El Paso will be torn between the in-state Aggies and the Sooners, but will ultimately bank on more traveling Sooner fans. The Insight Bowl in Tempe, Arizona will then take the Aggies. Not that we care, but after that, the Independence will invite the Cyclones back, and if Kansas beats Missouri, they will go to Houston for the Texas Bowl.

Next – the Crimson Tide.

Now that the Tide have survived Auburn, they have locked up their spot in the BCS. It will either be in the National Championship Game against Texas (or TCU), or it will be in the Sugar Bowl.

What about LSU, you say?

Outside of Florida, the SEC East is weak, so the best bowl bids are going to go to the West. However, LSU’s loss to Mississippi doesn’t really hurt them. The Tigers had no shot to make the BCS, as the SEC already has two qualifiers. And the only real options were the Capital One Bowl (who selects next after the BCS team(s)) or the Cotton Bowl, who selects the best remaining from the Western Division. LSU lost the head-to-head matchup but will have a much strong positioning in the BCS – possibly qualifying for the at-large pool in the top 14. Unless they lose to Arkansas, they’re stuck in Orlando.

And Wisconsin, for Rachel and her peripheral interest?

The Badgers’ loss to Northwestern in the final Big Ten conference weekend causes them to switch bowls with the Wildcats: Wisconsin is heading to San Antonio now, and Northwestern moves up to the Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando. A win over Hawai’I could switch things back; a loss won’t change their position.

Finally, what about the rest of the bowl eligible teams?

There are 68 bowl slots available and currently only 70 teams have qualified. Six teams’ fates are still undetermined:

• Army (5-6): must beat Navy for an automatic berth in the EagleBank Bowl, but that won’t happen
• Connecticut (5-5): must beat Syracuse or South Florida to qualify, which they will
• Duke (5-6): will lose to Wake Forest
• Hawai’i (5-6): must beat both Navy and Wisconsin, and won’t do that
• Kansas (5-6): will lose to Missouri
• Notre Dame (6-5): will lose to Stanford; even if they don’t, the Irish are too good to go to a lesser known bowl game, and will stay home
• UAB (5-6): must upset Central Florida at home to qualify, which they will

After the contractual bowl selections are made, this is what remains:

Bowls missing teams: EagleBank (from ACC); GMAC (from ACC); Texas (from Big XII); Humanitarian (from MWC); St. Petersburg (from Big East)

Predicted eligible teams remaining: Middle Tennessee State (8-3, @ Louisiana-Monroe); Bowling Green (7-5); Northern Illinois (7-5); Louisiana-Lafayette (6-5, v. Troy); Louisiana-Monroe (6-5, v. Middle Tennessee State); UCLA (6-5, @ USC); Connecticut (5-5, v. Syracuse, v. South Florida); UAB (5-6, v. Central Florida).

Bearing in mind that bowls may not offer a bid to a 6-6 team if there are eligible teams with 7-5 records or better, then Middle Tennessee State, Bowling Green and Northern Illinois will fill three of those five empty slots. UCLA will get a bid if they beat USC, or if no other remaining team gets to seven wins. The most likely fifth slot will go to Connecticut.

As for the BCS, Pittsburgh's loss to West Virginia shakes things up. The conference champions will still be Oregon, Alabama, Texas, Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, and Ohio State. TCU will automatically qualify under the non-BCS top 4 rule. Florida loses the SEC title game but stays in the BCS top 10 and is selected. Boise State cannot be ignored, and Oklahoma State steals the last spot with the win over OU.

And now for the rest of the conferences.

Atlantic Coast Conference

The title game is set: Georgia Tech and Clemson will meet in Tampa on December 5, with the Yellow Jackets winning the game and a berth in the BCS Orange Bowl. Clemson will fall to fourth selection, as Virginia Tech and Miami (FL) from the Coastal will get picked first. North Carolina finishes strong and will head to Nashville – but not via Interstate 40, which is closed due to a rock slide. Duke, one of the undetermined teams, will lose to Wake Forest to finish 5-7 and miss out on the bowls. As a result, the ACC will have to give up slots in the EagleBank and GMAC bowls.

Big XII Conference

Yeah, yeah, Texas, blah blah blah.

As mentioned, Oklahoma State will surge into the last at-large slot in the BCS, guaranteeing there won’t be any fighting for bowl slots from the rest of the conference. The South is still stronger, and will send five teams bowling, while the north just has three. Even with a win over Missouri, Kansas could still get left out because of the number of unassigned teams with seven or more wins.

Big East Conference

West Virginia took most of the air out of next week’s Cincinnati-Pittsburgh showdown by upsetting the Panthers. With a win over Rutgers to finish the season, West Virginia will surge into the second spot in the conference and head to the Gator Bowl, dropping the formerly BCS-bound Pitt to the Meineke Car Care Bowl in Charlotte. Connecticut will become eligible and take back one of the conference’s contractual bowls from the at-large pile.

Big Ten Conference

Since their season ended in October, there are no changes to the lineup here. Only Wisconsin’s game at Hawaii remains on December 5, and with a win they could move up a spot.

Conference USA

It’s the last week of the season, and both spots in the conference title game are still up for grabs. East Carolina and Southern Miss play a semifinal match, and the Pirates should come out on top. Meanwhile, Southern Methodist’s loss to Marshall last week took them out of the driver’s seat. They need Houston to lose to Rice – not likely – to make the title game. Houston will finish strong and beat the Pirates for the Liberty Bowl berth. The Eastern Division is muddled, with many complicated tiebreaker scenarios, so bowl assignments here are a crap shoot. Oh, and the Ponies will be spending their December at the New Orleans Bowl.

Mid-American Conference

Dan LeFeveour may be the best and most exciting player you’ve never heard of. He’ll lead Central Michigan over Ohio in the title game to head to the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl, a rather undignified name for a conference champion’s bowl. Thanks to the weakness of the ACC, plus their own strong finish, Bowling Green will go bowling for green at the EagleBank Bowl. Northern Illinois gets in, too, setting a record for the MAC with five teams in the postseason.

Mountain West Conference

No movement here, except that Wyoming’s win over Colorado State seals the Cowboys’ invitation to the New Mexico Bowl. The winner of BYU-Utah will go to the Las Vegas Bowl, and the loser to the Poinsettia.

Pacific-10 Conference

UCLA is on a roll and has locked up an at-large bowl berth from the MWC – the Humanitarian Bowl. Meanwhile, with so many games left out west, a lot could still change. Oregon and Oregon State battle for the BCS Rose Bowl, while USC is waiting in the wings to see how high up the selection chart it can rise. Stanford’s meteoric rise was stunted by their loss in the Big Game, but the Cardinal should still go middle-tier bowling.

Southeastern Conference

What’s the biggest surprise in the SEC? How about the Kentucky Wildcats? I see an upset win in the cards for them over Tennessee, giving them second place in the East and a spot in the prestigious New Year’s Day Outback Bowl, their second January 1 appearance since 1952. The rest of the weak East will send teams to major bowls, creating unfortunate mismatches in games that were once interesting. Mississippi’s win over LSU won’t be enough to get them into the Capital One Bowl (reserved for the best remaining team in the West) unless the Tigers lose to Arkansas. But the Cotton Bowl is probably a better prize for the Rebels, along with the exposure that comes from playing at Cowboys Stadium.

Sun Belt

Troy wins the conference and heads to the New Orleans Bowl. Middle Tennessee State’s eight wins in a weak year for the major conferences helps them steal a bid to the GMAC Bowl. If either of the ULs can get to seven wins (without UCLA or Connecticut doing the same), they will also go bowling, probably in St. Petersburg.

Western Athletic Conference

An undefeated season with signature wins over Oregon and Nevada still won’t be enough to get the Broncos of Boise State in the National Championship Game. (Well, not unless Nebraska beats Texas, TCU loses to 1-10 New Mexico, and Cincinnati loses to Pittsburgh.) They’ll head to the Fiesta Bowl again – who doesn’t want to relive that game against Oklahoma, except Eric? Four teams go bowling, including Nevada, whose loss to Boise State, but second place finish in the conference, earns them a trip to the Humanitarian Bowl – in Boise.

Bowl Matchups

NCG	Texas	Alabama
Rose	Ohio State	Oregon
Orange	Georgia Tech	TCU
Fiesta	Oklahoma State	Boise State
Sugar	Florida	Cincinnati
Alamo	Missouri	Wisconsin
Armed Forces	Southern Miss	Air Force
Capital One	Penn State	LSU
Champs Sports	Clemson	Northwestern
Chick-fil-A	Virginia Tech	Auburn
Cotton	Nebraska	Mississippi
Eagle Bank	Marshall	Bowling Green
Emerald	Florida State	Oregon State
Gator	Miami (FL)	West Virginia
GMAC	Ohio	Middle Tennessee St
Hawai'i	East Carolina	Idaho
Holiday	Texas Tech	USC
Humanitarian	UCLA	Nevada
Independence	Iowa State	Georgia
Insight	Texas A&M	Michigan State
International	Rutgers	Temple
Las Vegas	Utah	Stanford
Liberty	Houston	Tennessee
Little Caesar's Pizza	Minnesota	Central Michigan
Meineke Car Care	Boston College	Pittsburgh
Music City	North Carolina	Arkansas
New Mexico	Wyoming	Fresno State
New Orleans	Southern Methodist	Troy
Outback	Iowa	Kentucky
Papajohns.com	South Florida	South Carolina
Poinsettia	Brigham Young	Arizona
St. Petersburg	Connecticut	Central Florida
Sun	Oklahoma	California
Texas	Northern Illinois	Navy

College Football Outlook (with Bowls!)

[I've taken last week's post to its ultimate conclusion, and expanded the projections to all FBS teams and conferences. The primary difficulties were in placing Notre Dame (which has individual bowl agreements), and the projected 7-5 and 6-6 teams (lower-tier bowl placements are dicey).]

Some surprising results last week have upended the bowl projections, particularly in the Big XII. But before we get to that, here is this week's BCS Top 10 projections.

• ACC: Georgia Tech
• Big XII: Texas
• Big East: Cincinnati
• Big Ten: Ohio State
• Pac-10: Oregon
• SEC: Alabama
• At large: Boise State, Florida, TCU, USC

Two BCS Busters make it this year, but still can't break into the championship game. The most likely scenario that gets TCU to Pasadena? An Alabama loss to Auburn, and then a victory over Florida in the SEC title game. A colossal upset loss by Texas in the Big XII title game or to Texas A&M would give us the unthinkable: TCU v. Cincinnati or Boise State for the national title.

And now, it's time for a break down...

Big XII
Colorado is already eliminated from the postseason, but their surprise victory over Texas A&M made the Aggies' road to a bowl game much more difficult. A&M must take care of business against Baylor, and then beat either Oklahoma or Texas to get to seven wins and a reasonable bowl game. Without two more wins, the Aggies will be lucky to be invited to the ninth-pick Texas Bowl. Nebraska's "upset" of Oklahoma moved them into the postseason, and Missouri's loss to Baylor moved them out. And a strong finish by Oklahoma State, combined with some other outcomes, could move the Cowboys into an at-large BCS spot. In the North, Nebraska will beat Kansas State, but the Wildcats will take the Division That Time Forgot when Nebraska loses at Kansas and Colorado.

ACC
Georgia Tech is still the class of the ACC, despite their surprising loss at Miami earlier in the season, and two weak defensive performances the last two weeks against Vanderbilt and Wake Forest. The Yellow Jackets remaining schedule (Wake Forest, Duke, Georgia) is manageable, as is any potential opponent from the Atlantic Division in the ACC Championship Game. (most likely Clemson). The ACC won't fill all nine of its contracted bowl games, which will help out a team from the MAC, and possibly give a game to projected 6-6 Missouri.

Big East
The Big East title - and its usually undeserved BCS bowl bid - is a three-horse race now. West Virginia, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh are all in the BCS top 25, and they will play their round robin during the month of November. West Virginia's loss to fourth-place South Florida puts them at a disadvantage to the other two teams, but it won't matter. The Bearcats will beat West Virginia, Illinois, and Pittsburgh to make the BCS and threaten for the national title. The weak bottom half of the conference will cost the Big East their St. Petersburg Bowl bid, to the benefit of the Sun Belt Conference.

Big Ten
Iowa's quarterback injury has ended yet another promising season for the Hawkeyes. Ohio State will sneak into the Rose Bowl by beating Iowa and Michigan. Penn State's two conference losses will send them to the Outback Bowl. And the middle of the conference is in danger of costing the Big Ten some bowl bids - Michigan State, Purdue, Minnesota, and Michigan all have work to do to get bowl eligible.

Conference USA
It's Houston's to lose. Any of five teams can win the East, but Houston will win out and take the Liberty Bowl berth. Tulsa looked great against the Cougars, but the Hurricane also seems most likely to get left out of the postseason.

Independents
Navy has already accepted a Texas Bowl bid. Notre Dame is so difficult to place - they will not qualify for the BCS, or for their Gator or Sun Bowl arrangements. The best vacancy I have for them now, if the Golden Domers will deign to accept it, is at the Poinsettia Bowl.

Mid-American Conference
Due to weak performances in the major conferences, the MAC could be the beneficiary with as many as four bowl bids. Temple has finally found an appropriate home in the MAC, but they'll lose the title game to Central Michigan. The finishing schedules also favor bids for Bowling Green and Northern Illinois (who last saw action in the 2008 Independence Bowl).

Mountain West
The MWC is strong at the top and can send six teams bowling this season. TCU still has to get through Utah, and will, to bust the BCS and threaten for the national title.

Pacific 10
The Pac-10's full round robin conference schedule leaves lots of doubt as the end of the season nears. Despite the loss to Stanford, Oregon is best positioned for the Rose Bowl - if they can get past Arizona in two weeks. But if the Wildcats beat the Ducks and then lose to USC, the Pac-10 could have five teams finish at 7-2 in the conference. And it's too late at night for me to figure out how to break that tie. Speaking of the Trojans, though, a Stanford-UCLA-Arizona finish points to an at-large BCS berth for the current #9 team.

Southeastern Conference
Provided they both win out, Alabama and Florida will both be in the BCS. The question is in which order. I'm a homer, but I also like Alabama's defense to carry the day agains the Gators. The Outback Bowl's conference arrangements pits the third-best Big Ten team (Penn State) against the best remaining SEC East team - not much of a choice between average Georgia, South Carolina, and Tennessee. The Vols have the best shot at landing this matchup. Meanwhile, Kentucky will win one and maybe two of their last three games to land in the Independence Bowl.

Sun Belt
Unfortunately, the bowl outlook is the poorest for the weak Sun Belt conference. They spend much of their non-conference seasons as fodder for the SEC, cashing large paychecks for large defeats. Troy will win out and take the automatic bid to the New Orleans Bowl. Thanks to the Big East's inability to fill all their bowl slots, Middle Tennessee State will sneak into the St. Petersburg Bowl. (I keep trying to put an "h" on the end of that.)

Western Athletic Conference
Boise State is tops once again, and has a chance at the BCS title game. Their at-large berth will keep a second Big Ten team out of the BCS. Nevada and Fresno State will go bowling again, and if Idaho can finish strong, the Vandals will shock everyone by going bowling.

Current Bowl Projections
National Championship Game: Texas v. Alabama
Rose Bowl: Oregon v. Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech v. TCU
Fiesta Bowl: USC v. Boise State
Sugar Bowl: Florida v. Cincinnati

Alamo: Oklahoma v. Northwestern
Armed Forces: Southern Miss v. Air Force
Capital One: Iowa v. LSU
Champs Sports: Clemson v. Wisconsin
Chick-fil-A: Miami (FL) v. South Carolina
Cotton: Oklahoma State v. Auburn
Eagle Bank: Central Florida v. Northern Illinois
Emerald: Virginia v. Stanford
Gator: Virginia Tech v. Pittsburgh
GMAC: Missouri v. Temple
Hawai'i: East Carolina v. Idaho
Holiday: Kansas State v. Oregon State
Humanitarian: Wyoming v. Fresno State
Independence: Iowa State v. Kentucky
Insight: Nebraska v. Michigan State
International: South Florida v. Bowling Green
Las Vegas: Utah v. California
Liberty: Houston v. Georgia
Little Caesar's Pizza: Purdue v. Central Michigan
Meineke Car Care: Florida State v. West Virginia
Music City: Boston College v. Mississippi
New Mexico: San Diego State v. Nevada
New Orleans: Southern Methodist v. Troy
Outback: Penn State v. Tennessee
Papajohns.com: Rutgers v. Arkansas
Poinsettia: Notre Dame v. Brigham Young
St. Petersburg: Marshall v. Middle Tennessee State
Sun: Texas Tech v. Arizona
Texas: Texas A&M v. Navy

Big XII Outlook (with Bowls)

Most Big XII teams are four to five games into their conference schedules, and parts of the postseason picture are starting to come into focus. Let's start in the South, where the picture is much tidier (capsules are in order of likelihood).

• Texas (8-0, 5-0 Big XII) controls its own destiny - the only way the Longhorns miss the championship game is by losing two of three to Baylor, Kansas, and Texas A&M. If they win these, plus a detour against non-conference cupcake Central Florida, and they will head to Arlington to roll over a mediocre North Division opponent on their way to the National Championship Game in Pasadena.
• Oklahoma (5-3, 3-1) needs to win out (Nebraska, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State) and have Texas lose two of the following games: Baylor, Kansas, Texas A&M.
• Oklahoma State (6-2, 3-1) needs to win out (Iowa State, Texas Tech, Colorado, Oklahoma) and have Texas lose two of the following games: Baylor, Kansas, Texas A&M.
• Texas A&M (5-3, 2-2) must win out (Colorado, Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas) and have the winner of the Oklahoma-Oklahoma State game lose to another conference opponent; and have Texas lose to Kansas or Baylor.
• Texas Tech (6-3, 3-2) must win out (Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Baylor) and have Texas lose their last three conference games (Baylor, Kansas, Texas A&M).
• Baylor is eliminated.

In the North, things are much murkier. Any of the six teams could still win the division.

• Kansas State (5-4, 3-2) controls its own destiny - simply beat equally mediocre Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska, and they will tie the Huskers with their fourth North Division crown. It will be the only thing they have to celebrate, as any team in this division will be squashed by Texas in the title game.
• Nebraska (5-3, 2-2) controls its own destiny, too. However, the Cornhuskers must beat Oklahoma, Kansas, Kansas State, Colorado, which is a much stiffer schedule than the Wildcats have. Their 9-7 loss to Iowa State was critical; had they won that game, they would be the strong favorites to win the division.
• Missouri (5-3, 1-3) must win out (Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State, Kansas) and have Nebraska lose another conference game.
• Iowa State (5-4, 2-3) must win (Oklahoma State, Colorado, Missouri) out and have Kansas lose another conference game, and have Kansas State lose another conference game.
• Kansas (5-3, 1-3) also unbelievably controls its own destiny, but must win out against Kansas State, Nebraska, Texas, Missouri. Not going to happen.
• Colorado (2-6, 1-3) must win out (Texas A&M, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Nebraska) and have Kansas State lose two of their last three conference games; and have Missouri lose another conference game.

Even more remarkably, an unprecedented six-way tie at 4-4 is possible in the North, but only if Kansas beat Texas, Oklahoma State loses to both Iowa State and Colorado, and a few more improbable outcomes.

(Skip this if you don't like minutiae: Nebraska, Iowa State and Colorado would be eliminated on the second tiebreaker with 2-3 division records. Kansas, Kansas State and Missouri would be tied with 3-2 division records and 1-1 records against each other. Using the same criteria, Iowa State would finish fourth, Colorado fifth, and Nebraska sixth. Under the third tiebreaker, all three teams in contention will have beaten fourth place Iowa State; Kansas is eliminated by their loss to fifth place Colorado; and Kansas State advances to Arlington on the basis of their projected win over Missouri.)

(Other trivia: the Southwest Conference had a five-way tie in 1994 after Texas A&M (6-0-1) was declared ineligible. Baylor, Rice, Texas Tech, Texas, and TCU all shared the title. Texas Tech took the Cotton Bowl berth. Oh, and Texas Tech is the only Big XII team to never have had a losing record since the conference was formed.)

So where does that leave the bowl match-ups? The bowls make their selections in a pre-determined order, and with a few exceptions, the bowls do not have to choose the remaining team with the best record. Here is the order of selection:

1. BCS
2. Cotton
3. Holiday
4. Alamo*
5. Sun*
6. Insight
7. Independence
8. Texas

*-Per an agreement between the Gator, Alamo, and Sun bowls, the Gator Bowl (which usually selects fourth) must choose a Big East team or Notre Dame this year, and the Sun Bowl must choose a Big XII team.

Based on my projections, here is how they will play out.

• BCS - Texas (12-0, 8-0 Big XII) will play in the National Championship Game. No other Big XII team will qualify for an at-large BCS berth.
• Cotton - Oklahoma (9-3, 7-1) will head to Arlington as the second-best team in the league.
• Holiday - By virtue of their season-ending loss to the Sooner, Oklahoma State (9-3, 6-2) will go to San Diego.
• Alamo - given the choice between five 7-5 teams (Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Iowa State, Missouri), the Alamo Bowl will choose the closest team with the biggest fan base - the Aggies (7-5, 4-4).
• Sun - The Sun Bowl will follow suit by taking Texas Tech (7-5, 4-4).
• Insight - North Division champs Kansas State (7-5, 5-3) take a beating from Texas and then head to Tempe.
• Independence - Iowa State (7-5, 4-4) heads back to Shreveport. But if we're not there to see it, does it really happen?
• Texas - Missouri (7-5, 3-5) gets the bid despite the losing conference record, because Houston's only other choice is Nebraska (6-6, 3-5). It's hard to promote a lower-tier bowl game as it is, without having one team enter without a winning record.

So get ready for some indoor football, boys - today it looks like we're spending the holiday in San Antonio.