A win over Texas would have solidified their bowl position higher in the Big XII selection process. However, the Aggies are bowl eligible and will be playing in December, partly because of the poor quality of remaining teams at the bottom of the selection barrel (more on that in a minute).
With Pittsburgh’s upset loss to West Virginia, and their expected loss to Cincinnati, there is room in the BCS for a new at large player. Oklahoma State is going to win the Bedlam Bell for just the sixth time since 1997 (and sixteenth in over a century). That will be enough to squeeze them past Iowa and Penn State for the tenth and final BCS spot. Penn State’s losses to Iowa and Ohio State look better than the Cowboys’ losses to Texas and Houston. But the fact that the Big Ten season ends so early gives Oklahoma State a chance to have the field to themselves.
Now, how does all that relate to the Aggies? The Big XII Conference has agreements with the BCS and seven bowls for a total of eight slots. With Oklahoma State in the BCS, there is now room for nine Big XII teams, and unless Kansas upsets Missouri, there will be exactly nine qualifiers. Four of them will be 6-6 teams: Iowa State, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and possibly Kansas. The Sun, Insight, Independence, and Texas bowls have the last four selections. And when you get to this point in the process, it’s all about money and traveling fans.
The Sun Bowl in El Paso will be torn between the in-state Aggies and the Sooners, but will ultimately bank on more traveling Sooner fans. The Insight Bowl in Tempe, Arizona will then take the Aggies. Not that we care, but after that, the Independence will invite the Cyclones back, and if Kansas beats Missouri, they will go to Houston for the Texas Bowl.
Next – the Crimson Tide.
Now that the Tide have survived Auburn, they have locked up their spot in the BCS. It will either be in the National Championship Game against Texas (or TCU), or it will be in the Sugar Bowl.
What about LSU, you say?
Outside of Florida, the SEC East is weak, so the best bowl bids are going to go to the West. However, LSU’s loss to Mississippi doesn’t really hurt them. The Tigers had no shot to make the BCS, as the SEC already has two qualifiers. And the only real options were the Capital One Bowl (who selects next after the BCS team(s)) or the Cotton Bowl, who selects the best remaining from the Western Division. LSU lost the head-to-head matchup but will have a much strong positioning in the BCS – possibly qualifying for the at-large pool in the top 14. Unless they lose to Arkansas, they’re stuck in Orlando.
And Wisconsin, for Rachel and her peripheral interest?
The Badgers’ loss to Northwestern in the final Big Ten conference weekend causes them to switch bowls with the Wildcats: Wisconsin is heading to San Antonio now, and Northwestern moves up to the Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando. A win over Hawai’I could switch things back; a loss won’t change their position.
Finally, what about the rest of the bowl eligible teams?
There are 68 bowl slots available and currently only 70 teams have qualified. Six teams’ fates are still undetermined:
- Army (5-6): must beat Navy for an automatic berth in the EagleBank Bowl, but that won’t happen
- Connecticut (5-5): must beat Syracuse or South Florida to qualify, which they will
- Duke (5-6): will lose to Wake Forest
- Hawai’i (5-6): must beat both Navy and Wisconsin, and won’t do that
- Kansas (5-6): will lose to Missouri
- Notre Dame (6-5): will lose to Stanford; even if they don’t, the Irish are too good to go to a lesser known bowl game, and will stay home
- UAB (5-6): must upset Central Florida at home to qualify, which they will
After the contractual bowl selections are made, this is what remains:
Bowls missing teams: EagleBank (from ACC); GMAC (from ACC); Texas (from Big XII); Humanitarian (from MWC); St. Petersburg (from Big East)
Predicted eligible teams remaining: Middle Tennessee State (8-3, @ Louisiana-Monroe); Bowling Green (7-5); Northern Illinois (7-5); Louisiana-Lafayette (6-5, v. Troy); Louisiana-Monroe (6-5, v. Middle Tennessee State); UCLA (6-5, @ USC); Connecticut (5-5, v. Syracuse, v. South Florida); UAB (5-6, v. Central Florida).
Bearing in mind that bowls may not offer a bid to a 6-6 team if there are eligible teams with 7-5 records or better, then Middle Tennessee State, Bowling Green and Northern Illinois will fill three of those five empty slots. UCLA will get a bid if they beat USC, or if no other remaining team gets to seven wins. The most likely fifth slot will go to Connecticut.
As for the BCS, Pittsburgh's loss to West Virginia shakes things up. The conference champions will still be Oregon, Alabama, Texas, Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, and Ohio State. TCU will automatically qualify under the non-BCS top 4 rule. Florida loses the SEC title game but stays in the BCS top 10 and is selected. Boise State cannot be ignored, and Oklahoma State steals the last spot with the win over OU.
And now for the rest of the conferences.
Atlantic Coast Conference
The title game is set: Georgia Tech and Clemson will meet in Tampa on December 5, with the Yellow Jackets winning the game and a berth in the BCS Orange Bowl. Clemson will fall to fourth selection, as Virginia Tech and Miami (FL) from the Coastal will get picked first. North Carolina finishes strong and will head to Nashville – but not via Interstate 40, which is closed due to a rock slide. Duke, one of the undetermined teams, will lose to Wake Forest to finish 5-7 and miss out on the bowls. As a result, the ACC will have to give up slots in the EagleBank and GMAC bowls.
Big XII Conference
Yeah, yeah, Texas, blah blah blah.
As mentioned, Oklahoma State will surge into the last at-large slot in the BCS, guaranteeing there won’t be any fighting for bowl slots from the rest of the conference. The South is still stronger, and will send five teams bowling, while the north just has three. Even with a win over Missouri, Kansas could still get left out because of the number of unassigned teams with seven or more wins.
Big East Conference
West Virginia took most of the air out of next week’s Cincinnati-Pittsburgh showdown by upsetting the Panthers. With a win over Rutgers to finish the season, West Virginia will surge into the second spot in the conference and head to the Gator Bowl, dropping the formerly BCS-bound Pitt to the Meineke Car Care Bowl in Charlotte. Connecticut will become eligible and take back one of the conference’s contractual bowls from the at-large pile.
Big Ten Conference
Since their season ended in October, there are no changes to the lineup here. Only Wisconsin’s game at Hawaii remains on December 5, and with a win they could move up a spot.
Conference USA
It’s the last week of the season, and both spots in the conference title game are still up for grabs. East Carolina and Southern Miss play a semifinal match, and the Pirates should come out on top. Meanwhile, Southern Methodist’s loss to Marshall last week took them out of the driver’s seat. They need Houston to lose to Rice – not likely – to make the title game. Houston will finish strong and beat the Pirates for the Liberty Bowl berth. The Eastern Division is muddled, with many complicated tiebreaker scenarios, so bowl assignments here are a crap shoot. Oh, and the Ponies will be spending their December at the New Orleans Bowl.
Mid-American Conference
Dan LeFeveour may be the best and most exciting player you’ve never heard of. He’ll lead Central Michigan over Ohio in the title game to head to the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl, a rather undignified name for a conference champion’s bowl. Thanks to the weakness of the ACC, plus their own strong finish, Bowling Green will go bowling for green at the EagleBank Bowl. Northern Illinois gets in, too, setting a record for the MAC with five teams in the postseason.
Mountain West Conference
No movement here, except that Wyoming’s win over Colorado State seals the Cowboys’ invitation to the New Mexico Bowl. The winner of BYU-Utah will go to the Las Vegas Bowl, and the loser to the Poinsettia.
Pacific-10 Conference
UCLA is on a roll and has locked up an at-large bowl berth from the MWC – the Humanitarian Bowl. Meanwhile, with so many games left out west, a lot could still change. Oregon and Oregon State battle for the BCS Rose Bowl, while USC is waiting in the wings to see how high up the selection chart it can rise. Stanford’s meteoric rise was stunted by their loss in the Big Game, but the Cardinal should still go middle-tier bowling.
Southeastern Conference
What’s the biggest surprise in the SEC? How about the Kentucky Wildcats? I see an upset win in the cards for them over Tennessee, giving them second place in the East and a spot in the prestigious New Year’s Day Outback Bowl, their second January 1 appearance since 1952. The rest of the weak East will send teams to major bowls, creating unfortunate mismatches in games that were once interesting. Mississippi’s win over LSU won’t be enough to get them into the Capital One Bowl (reserved for the best remaining team in the West) unless the Tigers lose to Arkansas. But the Cotton Bowl is probably a better prize for the Rebels, along with the exposure that comes from playing at Cowboys Stadium.
Sun Belt
Troy wins the conference and heads to the New Orleans Bowl. Middle Tennessee State’s eight wins in a weak year for the major conferences helps them steal a bid to the GMAC Bowl. If either of the ULs can get to seven wins (without UCLA or Connecticut doing the same), they will also go bowling, probably in St. Petersburg.
Western Athletic Conference
An undefeated season with signature wins over Oregon and Nevada still won’t be enough to get the Broncos of Boise State in the National Championship Game. (Well, not unless Nebraska beats Texas, TCU loses to 1-10 New Mexico, and Cincinnati loses to Pittsburgh.) They’ll head to the Fiesta Bowl again – who doesn’t want to relive that game against Oklahoma, except Eric? Four teams go bowling, including Nevada, whose loss to Boise State, but second place finish in the conference, earns them a trip to the Humanitarian Bowl – in Boise.
Bowl Matchups
| NCG | Texas | Alabama |
| Rose | Ohio State | Oregon |
| Orange | Georgia Tech | TCU |
| Fiesta | Oklahoma State | Boise State |
| Sugar | Florida | Cincinnati |
| Alamo | Missouri | Wisconsin |
| Armed Forces | Southern Miss | Air Force |
| Capital One | Penn State | LSU |
| Champs Sports | Clemson | Northwestern |
| Chick-fil-A | Virginia Tech | Auburn |
| Cotton | Nebraska | Mississippi |
| Eagle Bank | Marshall | Bowling Green |
| Emerald | Florida State | Oregon State |
| Gator | Miami (FL) | West Virginia |
| GMAC | Ohio | Middle Tennessee St |
| Hawai'i | East Carolina | Idaho |
| Holiday | Texas Tech | USC |
| Humanitarian | UCLA | Nevada |
| Independence | Iowa State | Georgia |
| Insight | Texas A&M | Michigan State |
| International | Rutgers | Temple |
| Las Vegas | Utah | Stanford |
| Liberty | Houston | Tennessee |
| Little Caesar's Pizza | Minnesota | Central Michigan |
| Meineke Car Care | Boston College | Pittsburgh |
| Music City | North Carolina | Arkansas |
| New Mexico | Wyoming | Fresno State |
| New Orleans | Southern Methodist | Troy |
| Outback | Iowa | Kentucky |
| Papajohns.com | South Florida | South Carolina |
| Poinsettia | Brigham Young | Arizona |
| St. Petersburg | Connecticut | Central Florida |
| Sun | Oklahoma | California |
| Texas | Northern Illinois | Navy |
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