Big XII Outlook (with Bowls)

Most Big XII teams are four to five games into their conference schedules, and parts of the postseason picture are starting to come into focus. Let's start in the South, where the picture is much tidier (capsules are in order of likelihood).

• Texas (8-0, 5-0 Big XII) controls its own destiny - the only way the Longhorns miss the championship game is by losing two of three to Baylor, Kansas, and Texas A&M. If they win these, plus a detour against non-conference cupcake Central Florida, and they will head to Arlington to roll over a mediocre North Division opponent on their way to the National Championship Game in Pasadena.
• Oklahoma (5-3, 3-1) needs to win out (Nebraska, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State) and have Texas lose two of the following games: Baylor, Kansas, Texas A&M.
• Oklahoma State (6-2, 3-1) needs to win out (Iowa State, Texas Tech, Colorado, Oklahoma) and have Texas lose two of the following games: Baylor, Kansas, Texas A&M.
• Texas A&M (5-3, 2-2) must win out (Colorado, Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas) and have the winner of the Oklahoma-Oklahoma State game lose to another conference opponent; and have Texas lose to Kansas or Baylor.
• Texas Tech (6-3, 3-2) must win out (Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Baylor) and have Texas lose their last three conference games (Baylor, Kansas, Texas A&M).
• Baylor is eliminated.

In the North, things are much murkier. Any of the six teams could still win the division.

• Kansas State (5-4, 3-2) controls its own destiny - simply beat equally mediocre Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska, and they will tie the Huskers with their fourth North Division crown. It will be the only thing they have to celebrate, as any team in this division will be squashed by Texas in the title game.
• Nebraska (5-3, 2-2) controls its own destiny, too. However, the Cornhuskers must beat Oklahoma, Kansas, Kansas State, Colorado, which is a much stiffer schedule than the Wildcats have. Their 9-7 loss to Iowa State was critical; had they won that game, they would be the strong favorites to win the division.
• Missouri (5-3, 1-3) must win out (Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State, Kansas) and have Nebraska lose another conference game.
• Iowa State (5-4, 2-3) must win (Oklahoma State, Colorado, Missouri) out and have Kansas lose another conference game, and have Kansas State lose another conference game.
• Kansas (5-3, 1-3) also unbelievably controls its own destiny, but must win out against Kansas State, Nebraska, Texas, Missouri. Not going to happen.
• Colorado (2-6, 1-3) must win out (Texas A&M, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Nebraska) and have Kansas State lose two of their last three conference games; and have Missouri lose another conference game.

Even more remarkably, an unprecedented six-way tie at 4-4 is possible in the North, but only if Kansas beat Texas, Oklahoma State loses to both Iowa State and Colorado, and a few more improbable outcomes.

(Skip this if you don't like minutiae: Nebraska, Iowa State and Colorado would be eliminated on the second tiebreaker with 2-3 division records. Kansas, Kansas State and Missouri would be tied with 3-2 division records and 1-1 records against each other. Using the same criteria, Iowa State would finish fourth, Colorado fifth, and Nebraska sixth. Under the third tiebreaker, all three teams in contention will have beaten fourth place Iowa State; Kansas is eliminated by their loss to fifth place Colorado; and Kansas State advances to Arlington on the basis of their projected win over Missouri.)

(Other trivia: the Southwest Conference had a five-way tie in 1994 after Texas A&M (6-0-1) was declared ineligible. Baylor, Rice, Texas Tech, Texas, and TCU all shared the title. Texas Tech took the Cotton Bowl berth. Oh, and Texas Tech is the only Big XII team to never have had a losing record since the conference was formed.)

So where does that leave the bowl match-ups? The bowls make their selections in a pre-determined order, and with a few exceptions, the bowls do not have to choose the remaining team with the best record. Here is the order of selection:

1. BCS
2. Cotton
3. Holiday
4. Alamo*
5. Sun*
6. Insight
7. Independence
8. Texas

*-Per an agreement between the Gator, Alamo, and Sun bowls, the Gator Bowl (which usually selects fourth) must choose a Big East team or Notre Dame this year, and the Sun Bowl must choose a Big XII team.

Based on my projections, here is how they will play out.

• BCS - Texas (12-0, 8-0 Big XII) will play in the National Championship Game. No other Big XII team will qualify for an at-large BCS berth.
• Cotton - Oklahoma (9-3, 7-1) will head to Arlington as the second-best team in the league.
• Holiday - By virtue of their season-ending loss to the Sooner, Oklahoma State (9-3, 6-2) will go to San Diego.
• Alamo - given the choice between five 7-5 teams (Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Iowa State, Missouri), the Alamo Bowl will choose the closest team with the biggest fan base - the Aggies (7-5, 4-4).
• Sun - The Sun Bowl will follow suit by taking Texas Tech (7-5, 4-4).
• Insight - North Division champs Kansas State (7-5, 5-3) take a beating from Texas and then head to Tempe.
• Independence - Iowa State (7-5, 4-4) heads back to Shreveport. But if we're not there to see it, does it really happen?
• Texas - Missouri (7-5, 3-5) gets the bid despite the losing conference record, because Houston's only other choice is Nebraska (6-6, 3-5). It's hard to promote a lower-tier bowl game as it is, without having one team enter without a winning record.

So get ready for some indoor football, boys - today it looks like we're spending the holiday in San Antonio.