Some surprising results last week have upended the bowl projections, particularly in the Big XII. But before we get to that, here is this week's BCS Top 10 projections.
- ACC: Georgia Tech
- Big XII: Texas
- Big East: Cincinnati
- Big Ten: Ohio State
- Pac-10: Oregon
- SEC: Alabama
- At large: Boise State, Florida, TCU, USC
And now, it's time for a break down...
Big XII
Colorado is already eliminated from the postseason, but their surprise victory over Texas A&M made the Aggies' road to a bowl game much more difficult. A&M must take care of business against Baylor, and then beat either Oklahoma or Texas to get to seven wins and a reasonable bowl game. Without two more wins, the Aggies will be lucky to be invited to the ninth-pick Texas Bowl. Nebraska's "upset" of Oklahoma moved them into the postseason, and Missouri's loss to Baylor moved them out. And a strong finish by Oklahoma State, combined with some other outcomes, could move the Cowboys into an at-large BCS spot. In the North, Nebraska will beat Kansas State, but the Wildcats will take the Division That Time Forgot when Nebraska loses at Kansas and Colorado.
ACC
Georgia Tech is still the class of the ACC, despite their surprising loss at Miami earlier in the season, and two weak defensive performances the last two weeks against Vanderbilt and Wake Forest. The Yellow Jackets remaining schedule (Wake Forest, Duke, Georgia) is manageable, as is any potential opponent from the Atlantic Division in the ACC Championship Game. (most likely Clemson). The ACC won't fill all nine of its contracted bowl games, which will help out a team from the MAC, and possibly give a game to projected 6-6 Missouri.
Big East
The Big East title - and its usually undeserved BCS bowl bid - is a three-horse race now. West Virginia, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh are all in the BCS top 25, and they will play their round robin during the month of November. West Virginia's loss to fourth-place South Florida puts them at a disadvantage to the other two teams, but it won't matter. The Bearcats will beat West Virginia, Illinois, and Pittsburgh to make the BCS and threaten for the national title. The weak bottom half of the conference will cost the Big East their St. Petersburg Bowl bid, to the benefit of the Sun Belt Conference.
Big Ten
Iowa's quarterback injury has ended yet another promising season for the Hawkeyes. Ohio State will sneak into the Rose Bowl by beating Iowa and Michigan. Penn State's two conference losses will send them to the Outback Bowl. And the middle of the conference is in danger of costing the Big Ten some bowl bids - Michigan State, Purdue, Minnesota, and Michigan all have work to do to get bowl eligible.
Conference USA
It's Houston's to lose. Any of five teams can win the East, but Houston will win out and take the Liberty Bowl berth. Tulsa looked great against the Cougars, but the Hurricane also seems most likely to get left out of the postseason.
Independents
Navy has already accepted a Texas Bowl bid. Notre Dame is so difficult to place - they will not qualify for the BCS, or for their Gator or Sun Bowl arrangements. The best vacancy I have for them now, if the Golden Domers will deign to accept it, is at the Poinsettia Bowl.
Mid-American Conference
Due to weak performances in the major conferences, the MAC could be the beneficiary with as many as four bowl bids. Temple has finally found an appropriate home in the MAC, but they'll lose the title game to Central Michigan. The finishing schedules also favor bids for Bowling Green and Northern Illinois (who last saw action in the 2008 Independence Bowl).
Mountain West
The MWC is strong at the top and can send six teams bowling this season. TCU still has to get through Utah, and will, to bust the BCS and threaten for the national title.
Pacific 10
The Pac-10's full round robin conference schedule leaves lots of doubt as the end of the season nears. Despite the loss to Stanford, Oregon is best positioned for the Rose Bowl - if they can get past Arizona in two weeks. But if the Wildcats beat the Ducks and then lose to USC, the Pac-10 could have five teams finish at 7-2 in the conference. And it's too late at night for me to figure out how to break that tie. Speaking of the Trojans, though, a Stanford-UCLA-Arizona finish points to an at-large BCS berth for the current #9 team.
Southeastern Conference
Provided they both win out, Alabama and Florida will both be in the BCS. The question is in which order. I'm a homer, but I also like Alabama's defense to carry the day agains the Gators. The Outback Bowl's conference arrangements pits the third-best Big Ten team (Penn State) against the best remaining SEC East team - not much of a choice between average Georgia, South Carolina, and Tennessee. The Vols have the best shot at landing this matchup. Meanwhile, Kentucky will win one and maybe two of their last three games to land in the Independence Bowl.
Sun Belt
Unfortunately, the bowl outlook is the poorest for the weak Sun Belt conference. They spend much of their non-conference seasons as fodder for the SEC, cashing large paychecks for large defeats. Troy will win out and take the automatic bid to the New Orleans Bowl. Thanks to the Big East's inability to fill all their bowl slots, Middle Tennessee State will sneak into the St. Petersburg Bowl. (I keep trying to put an "h" on the end of that.)
Western Athletic Conference
Boise State is tops once again, and has a chance at the BCS title game. Their at-large berth will keep a second Big Ten team out of the BCS. Nevada and Fresno State will go bowling again, and if Idaho can finish strong, the Vandals will shock everyone by going bowling.
Current Bowl Projections
National Championship Game: Texas v. Alabama
Rose Bowl: Oregon v. Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech v. TCU
Fiesta Bowl: USC v. Boise State
Sugar Bowl: Florida v. Cincinnati
Alamo: Oklahoma v. Northwestern
Armed Forces: Southern Miss v. Air Force
Capital One: Iowa v. LSU
Champs Sports: Clemson v. Wisconsin
Chick-fil-A: Miami (FL) v. South Carolina
Cotton: Oklahoma State v. Auburn
Eagle Bank: Central Florida v. Northern Illinois
Emerald: Virginia v. Stanford
Gator: Virginia Tech v. Pittsburgh
GMAC: Missouri v. Temple
Hawai'i: East Carolina v. Idaho
Holiday: Kansas State v. Oregon State
Humanitarian: Wyoming v. Fresno State
Independence: Iowa State v. Kentucky
Insight: Nebraska v. Michigan State
International: South Florida v. Bowling Green
Las Vegas: Utah v. California
Liberty: Houston v. Georgia
Little Caesar's Pizza: Purdue v. Central Michigan
Meineke Car Care: Florida State v. West Virginia
Music City: Boston College v. Mississippi
New Mexico: San Diego State v. Nevada
New Orleans: Southern Methodist v. Troy
Outback: Penn State v. Tennessee
Papajohns.com: Rutgers v. Arkansas
Poinsettia: Notre Dame v. Brigham Young
St. Petersburg: Marshall v. Middle Tennessee State
Sun: Texas Tech v. Arizona
Texas: Texas A&M v. Navy
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